I ranted a few days ago about Fox News and other political pundits who mislead or deceive their viewers intentionally. I'm still angry at them, but thanks to Nicholas Kristof's column today I've learned of another form of misleading by pundits that is more understandable.
It turns out that most experts make wrong predictions nearly half the time. That's right--experts predicting future outcomes in their own area of expertise get it right only slightly more than random picks on a dartboard would. How embarrassing.
Kristof offers a brief explanation of why this happens and credits Philip Tetlock for the academic proof. Another more accessible explanation can be found at Jonah Lehrer's blog. But in case you're in a hurry today and can't spend any more time learning how things work, the short answer is most experts believe themselves too much. As they become more expert (and especially as they become more famous), they stop considering other points of view and focus too much on their own perspective. This makes them miss important new developments or nuances and dooms their predictions. Oh, and by the way, this doesn't just apply to political or financial experts. It can also apply to fashion experts. Maybe we won't have to return to broad padded shoulders and lots of dots.
PS. This doesn't mean we should stop listening to experts. That would be dangerous. Instead, be an editor like Kelley--read and listen to many different experts expressing different points of view. Then decide which combination of views seems most plausible.
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